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Move would likely hasten a broader Israel-Iran war, likely to also spill into Syrian and Iraq

CNN has revealed that Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned top Arab officials that Israel is intent on launching an incursion into Lebanon. “It seems that they [Israel] are very serious about going into Lebanon,” a source who was privy to Blinken’s meeting with an Arab counterpart during his latest trip to the region said.

CNN described further, “The Arab official’s response to Blinken, the source added, was that Hezbollah has communicated that they will not stop their strikes on Israel until Israel stops its operations in Gaza.”

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has warned this week that in the scenario of all-out war, no place in Israel would be safe and even nearby allies of Tel Aviv could come under Hezbollah rocket fire if they offer assistance – in a threat specifically warning Cyprus. This came soon after Israel’s top generals approved battle plans and acknowledged the IDF is on the ‘brink’ of launching an offensive against the Shia paramilitary group backed by Tehran.

The US is till seeking to cool tensions and making the argument that broader war is good for no one. CNN additionally included the following surprising statement from the Israeli side (surprising given that Israeli military leaders know full well that Hamas is far more formidable a foe than Hamas):

Israel has made the case that it can pull off a “blitzkrieg,” but the US is warning them that they may not be able to ensure that it remains a limited campaign, the official said.

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Israel’s strategy in a ground invasion scenario would be to keep the offensive ‘limited’ inasmuch as possible, primarily with the aim of creating a buffer zone of some 10km, which could allow the return of the tens of thousands of residents of northern Israel who have been within easy reach of Hezbollah’s constant drone and rocket barrages.

Washington too has been pressing a ceasefire plan that would ideally see Hezbollah agree to a buffer zone. Referencing Biden’s special envoy in the region Amos Hochstein, who has been in Beirut the last couple of days (and in Israel before that), CNN writes that “If war is averted and Hochstein’s plan goes into effect, it would similarly see Hezbollah pull back around six miles, or ten kilometers, away from the border.” And more:

“The fact that we have managed to even hold the front for this long has been a miracle,” a senior US official said, referring to the US’ efforts to keep the Israel-Hezbollah attacks from spiraling into an all-out war.

“We’re entering a very dangerous period,” another senior Biden administration official said. “Something could start with little warning.”

However the IDF might have trouble keeping operations limited: “But in order to prevent a return by the group in the future, Israel may want to further destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the area,” notes the report.

It must be remembered that all the way back in January, Israel received a warning from US military intelligence (DIA) laying out that fighting a two-front war with Hamas in the south and Hezbollah in the north would be devastating, and likely a losing situation.

This surprise revelation and blunt warning was buried in a prior Washington Post story: 

In private conversations, the administration has warned Israel against a significant escalation in Lebanon. If it were to do so, a new secret assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) found that it will be difficult for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to succeed because its military assets and resources would be spread too thin given the conflict in Gaza, according to two people familiar with those findings. A spokesperson for the DIA did not offer comment.

We previously unpacked the implication in special analysis If Full War With Hezbollah Opens, Israel Will Lose.

Blinken’s office was cited in the same report as saying at the time: “It is in no one’s interest — not Israel’s, not the region’s, not the world’s — for this conflict to spread beyond Gaza.” This has been the official US line since then as well. Of course, this would likely hasten a broader Israel-Iran war, likely to also spill into Syrian and Iraq.

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13 western countries, including the United States, have all signed a WEF treaty to engineer what they are calling an “ethical global famine” as part of the World Economic Forum’s Agenda 2030 goals. The following […]

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“Hundreds of aid pallets awaiting collection and distribution by the UN aid agencies”

“On the Gazan side of the Kerem Shalom Crossing, where over 1,000 trucks are awaiting collection and distribution… there are hundreds of aid pallets awaiting collection and distribution by the UN aid agencies,” Maj. Gen. Ghassan Alian of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has announced.

For months, there have been two primary threats to aid convoys entering the Gaza Strip. First, on their way in, trucks carrying vital humanitarian supplies often come under attack by Israeli settlers. Second, once convoys are inside the Strip, they face the potential of being swarmed and coming under attack by desperate Palestinians who rip the supplies away before they arrive at intended drop-off points.

Also, in many cases even population enclaves in the Strip which are not currently witnessing direct battles are in desperation and civil chaos amid fuel, food, and medicine shortages – given there is no overall governing authority.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Friday called the situation one of “total lawlessness” and decried that it has led to wide-spread looting at aid storehouses.

“The situation in Gaza became a situation of total lawlessness. Most of the trucks with humanitarian aid inside Gaza are now looted because this is a war that is different from any other one,” Guterres said a news conference.

He said this is large-part due to the nature of this conflict, where Israel has not occupied and managed any single territory with enough permanence to bring any level of stability, also amid a state of internecine attacks and continued bombings.

Guterres further characterized “total chaos in Gaza” in which there is “no authority in most of the territory,” as it remains that “Israel does not even allow the so-called blue police to escort our (UN) convoys, because it’s a local police linked to local administration.”

This has made it nearly impossible to run a legitimate and timely system of aid delivery and distribution, given that for this to work there must be minimum rule of law and order.

“The problem is not only to bring things to Gaza,” he said, after explaining that once inside the shipments are an easy target for looting. “That’s why a cease-fire is so necessary to … properly organize and implement a plan,” he stressed.

The past months have witnessed dangerous scenes from Gaza like the following:

Below are some of the latest breaking developments via Al Jazeera:

• At least 25 killed, 50 wounded in Israeli attack on tents of displaced people in Mawasi, says Palestinian Health Ministry.
• Israeli tanks push deeper into western Rafah in south Gaza, firing shells at displaced people’s tents, with one armoured vehicle blown up by a Hamas-planted improvised explosive device.
• The White House has described Benjamin Netanyahu’s criticism of the suspension of one US weapons delivery to Israel as “vexing” and “disappointing” as the public rift between the two allies intensifies.
• Israeli forces have carried out deadly air attacks across Gaza over the past 24 hours, including a strike on a home that has killed eight people in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighbourhood.
• United Nations experts have warned arms manufacturers against transferring weapons to Israel, saying they could be complicit in violations of international law carried out in Gaza.
• At least 37,431 people have been killed and 85,653 wounded in Israel’s war on Gaza since October 7. The death toll in Israel from the Hamas-led attacks stands at 1,139, with dozens of people still held captive in Gaza.

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Biden admin has also stripped Russian diplomats of tax exemption privilege

The United States has notified Russian diplomats that the visa center with branches in Washington and New York is closing, but consular support will continue despite the increased workload, Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov told reporters.

“Every day attacks are made against us. And today, literally an hour ago, an hour before the event, the Americans sent us a notice that the visa center was closing and now an additional burden falls on the shoulders of Russian diplomats and consuls… We will continue to work, we will not abandon our compatriots. We will do our best to provide them with the necessary legal and consular support,” Antonov said after a ceremony in memory of the anniversary of the start of the Great Patriotic War (World War II).

The ambassador said the American side did not explain the reasons for the decision. He did not announce Russia’s possible retaliatory measures.

The United States has also stripped Russian diplomats of the tax exemption privilege, Antonov added.

“Today the Americans made… a nasty attack on Russian diplomats, diplomats of bilateral institutions. They took away our tax exemption cards. These cards provide privileges for diplomats of any country, allowing them to live and not pay taxes to the local treasury. None of us is going to do this. We have our own state, to which we pay and will pay our taxes,” the diplomat said.

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NATO and EU expansion plans made Russia believe the West posed a threat, the Eurosceptic firebrand has said

Western powers essentially goaded Russia into launching a military operation against Ukraine by refusing to abandon plans for NATO and EU enlargement, Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform UK party, has said.

In an interview with the BBC on Saturday, Farage, known for his prominent role in the Brexit campaign and his anti-immigration views, recalled that he warned of a potential war in Ukraine as early as 2014, following the Western-backed coup in Kiev.

”It was obvious to me that the ever-eastward expansion of NATO and the European Union was giving this man [Russian President Vladimir Putin] a reason… to say ‘they are coming after us again’ and go to war,” he said.

While Farage claimed it was Putin’s “fault” that Russia sent troops into Ukraine, he insisted that “we’ve provoked this war.”

Farage’s comments have sparked outrage from UK officials, with Home Secretary James Cleverly claiming the Reform UK leader was “echoing Putin’s vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine.”

In September 2014, while fierce battles were raging in Donbass, Farage denounced what he called the West’s “unnecessary provocation” of Moscow, arguing that it stemmed from NATO and the EU’s aspiration to absorb Ukraine. “The moral of the story is, if you poke the Russian bear with a stick, don’t be surprised when he reacts,” Farage said at the time.

On February 24, 2022 – the day Russia sent troops into Ukraine – Farage acknowledged that Putin “has gone much further than I thought he would,” emphasizing that “it made no sense to poke the Russian bear with a stick.”

Russia has for years voiced concerns about NATO expansion towards its borders, seeing it as an existential threat. Members of the US-led military bloc agreed in 2008 that Ukraine would eventually join, but gave no specific timetable. Kiev officially declared NATO membership a strategic objective in 2019. In 2022, after four of its former regions voted to join Russia, Ukraine submitted an application to join the bloc.

Moscow has repeatedly stated that Ukraine’s neutral status is one of the key goals of its military campaign. The issue loomed large at the Istanbul peace talks in the spring of 2022, which both Russian officials and David Arakhamia, the head of Ukraine’s delegation at the negotiations, have said were derailed by then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who allegedly advised Ukraine to keep fighting. Johnson has disputed this version of events.

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