Hedge Fund Icon: “We’re Just Two Years Away From A US Debt Sustainability Crisis, Sparking A Major Global Market Event”
“The last time the debt as a share of GDP was this large was in 1945-1946, at the end of World War II,” wrote Daniel Wilson and Brigid Meisenbacherat from the Economic Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. I was grinding through my stack, piled high with white papers. “Over the following three decades, the debt-to-GDP ratio steadily fell, reaching roughly 25% by 1975,” continued the San Fran Fed report [see here].
I have growing conviction that in the coming 2-5 years we’re going to face a US debt sustainability crisis, sparking a major global market event. I’ve observed that when people from within our institutions raise an alarm, knowing it would be far easier for them to remain quiet, we’re getting closer.
“That 30-year decline contrasts sharply with the projected 30-year increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, reaching 172%, over 2024 to 2054, according to the latest current Congressional Budget Office projections.” Wilson and Meisenbacherat point out that the Fed projects a longer-term real Fed Funds rate of 0.50%.
And their median projection for long-run real GDP growth is 1.8%. They highlight that the CBO, however, forecasts a lower 1.5% real GDP growth rate, and a longer-term real interest rate on US debt of 2.0%.
“In this case, slow economic growth relative to interest rates would exert modest upward pressure on the debt ratio, primarily from higher interest payments,” they wrote.
“The main source of the long-run upward pressure on the primary deficit is spending on mandatory programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Current legislated formulas used to determine spending per recipient for Social Security benefits and government health-care programs, especially Medicare, combined with the projected aging of the population, point to large increases in spending for these programs as a share of GDP. This pressure was absent after WWII because the overall US population was younger and because Medicare was not enacted until 1965.”
And with no political party willing adjust these programs, it is increasingly likely the market will force change.
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THOUGHT POLICE SNITCHES: Bill in Washington Offers $2,000 Rewards to Residents Who Report Neighbors Guilty of ‘Wrong-Speak’
The Washington state legislature has passed a bill to create a statewide snitching infrastructure for residents to report their neighbors for “wrongspeak.”
Senate Bill 5427, which passed both the Senate and the House and now awaits Gov. Jay Inslee’s signature, allows private individuals, including non-citizens and illegal aliens, to reports “bias incidents” to the state attorney general’s office. Each reporting incident comes with a potential reward payout of $2,000.
The bill’s supporters say its purpose is to protect “victims of hate crimes” before said crimes even occur, but at what cost? In essence, SB 5427 creates a tattletale hotline designed to intimidate people in Washington from speaking their minds, especially when such speech might be politically incorrect.
From what we can tell, SB 5427 is unconstitutional for at least the following five reasons:
1) It infringes on one’s right to confront his accuser
2) It impedes freedom of speech
3) It violates freedom of thought, an implied right in the First Amendment
4) It steamrolls freedom of religion
5) It impairs freedom of the press
“People will stop talking to others and writing to others except very close friends and relatives for fear a greedy ‘Karen’ will report them to Washington’s version of the Gestapo,” is how one independent media outlet framed SB 5427.
(Related: Remember back during the Wuhan coronavirus [COVD-19] “pandemic” when Washington Gov. Jay Inslee was caught setting up COVID concentration camps to imprison the non-compliant?)
Washington, the tyranny state
For a constituency that prides itself on “bodily rights” (abortion) and other do-whatever-we-wantbeliefs, SB 5427 sure will put a muzzle on the mouths of Washingtonians – at least those who express unpopular viewpoints.
In a public testimony before the Senate Ways and Means Committee on February 20, Conservative Ladies of Washington Founder and President Julie Barrett blasted the bill for completely overriding the United States Constitution.
“Spend five minutes on Twitter on any given day and I assure someone would say something offensive under this law that we could call a ‘hate crime’ and collect $2,000 from the attorney general,” Barrett said.
“It potentially target[s] people for actions they don’t like, but are not actually hate crimes. In collaboration with bills like HB 1333, this would create sort of a ‘tattletale hotline’ to report people one doesn’t agree with or doesn’t like.”
In defense of the bill’s $2,000-per-report offering, one supporter of SB 5427 tried to argue that the money “is not a reward to people who report to the hotline,” but rather compensation to cover the cost of “damages” incurred, whatever those might be.
SB 5427 explicitly mentions “an expression of animus” as one of the offending actions that warrants a call to the state government, to which we wonder: What, exactly, does this mean?
Imagine a police officer arrives at your home for questioning about a “bias incident” you allegedly committed. Since the statute prohibits him from telling you who called in the complaint, and also bars him from answering any questions you might have, all you know is that you said something “wrong” and must now pay a price with no way to defend yourself.
After all that, your name stays on the state’s “Bias Incident List” forever, only to be added to in the event that you commit more “expressions of animus” that warrant additional reports. Does Washington sound like a good place to live?
“Hopefully voters in the state of Washington turn over the government,” said one commenter about the bill. “Either that or chunks of the state could end up merging into Idaho.”
Did you ever think you would see this kind of thing take shape in the “land of the free?” Find out more at Tyranny.news.
Sources for this article include:
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‘We Shouldn’t Have Gone Into Ukraine’ – Biden
US president Joe Biden has committed another gaffe to the public record. In the course of an interview with MSNBC on Saturday Biden said that Washington had made a mistake by going into Ukraine when in fact he was referring to the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Biden had meant to offer criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who, by ignoring civilian casualties during the IDF’s military operation in Gaza, is “hurting Israel more than he’s helping Israel.”
The US leader recalled how, during his visit to Israel early in the conflict, he had warned Netanyahu against making a “mistake” that the US made after 9/11.
“America made a mistake. We went after Osama bin Laden until we got him, but we shouldn’t have gone into Ukraine…” the 81-year-old said.
According to the latest data from the Gaza health ministry, 31,045 people have been killed and 72,654 others wounded since October 7, after which the IDF began its attacks on the Palestinian enclave in response to the Hamas incursion into Israel, in which an estimated 1,200 people lost their lives and over 200 were taken hostage.
Read more Netanyahu hurting Israel more than helping – Biden
The president quickly corrected himself, saying: “We shouldn’t have gone into the whole thing in Iraq and Afghanistan.” Those military campaigns by the US “caused more problems than they cured,” he added.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova infused the subject with sarcasm, suggesting that Moscow actually disagreed with reporting in the media that Biden had simply confused Ukraine with Iraq and Afghanistan.
“He didn’t mix it up. He can no longer retain to himself what everyone understands – the US have disgraced themselves in the bloodiest manner with the whole Ukrainian project,” she wrote on Telegram on Sunday.
After repelling Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year, Russian forces have been steadily improving frontline positions, capturing the strategic stronghold of Adveevka in Russia’s People’s Republic of Donetsk last month, and several other settlements.
Washington has been Ukraine’s primary backer since the escalation to armed confrontation in February 2022 of long-simmering conflicts between Moscow and Kiev, and has provided over $111 billion in military and financial assistance. However, in recent months, US aid has subsided drastically as the Biden administration struggles to overcome Republican resistance to its efforts to push through another $60-billion for Ukraine.
READ MORE: US ‘will not bow down’ to Russia – Biden
It’s not the first time that Biden has confused countries and places. In June, he said that “Putin is losing the war in Iraq.” In a more recent blunder, he said a week ago that the US and partners were discussing “airdrops of food and supplies into Ukraine,” while actually meaning proposed airdrops into Gaza.
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UK ‘Allowed’ Killing of Own Citizens to Protect Undercover Agent – Police Chief
British security forces had knowingly failed to prevent several murders of UK citizens in order to protect an informant in an armed resistance group active in Northern Ireland during the Troubles, a high-profile report published on Friday said.
The interim report about Operation Kenova – an independent investigation into the activities of an alleged government agent known as Stakeknife – was presented by the probe’s former head, Jon Boutcher. Launched back in 2016, the inquiry specifically dealt with the agent’s alleged involvement in the kidnappings, torture and murders committed by the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA).
Boutcher, who left the probe in 2023 to become the chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland, said he published the preliminary report due to the slow progress of the prosecution linked to the investigation. He slammed the British domestic counterintelligence agency MI5 for what he called attempts “to undermine me and the investigation.”
Boutcher’s report said that he had to repeatedly raise “concerns regarding access to information” from MI5 and argued that “its strategy was one of delay.”
Read more Declassified report shows Northern Ireland police told not to arrest MI5 informants
According to the document, lawyers representing former security force personnel linked to those cases were granted much greater access to MI5 materials.
The MI5 effectively prevented Operation Kenova from submitting evidence against the chief suspect identified as Freddie Scappaticci, who was widely presumed to be Stakeknife, and other security personnel to the prosecutors in October 2019, the report said. “MI5 informed us that the building’s security accreditation had expired and we therefore could not proceed,” the report stated, adding that the relevant documents were eventually only submitted in February 2020.
The probe examined a total of 101 murders associated with the IRA’s “nutting squad” – the group’s internal security unit responsible for interrogating those suspected of cooperating with the state security services. Stakeknife was a leading figure in the unit and was allegedly personally linked to at least 14 murders and 15 abductions, the Guardian reported, citing sources close to the investigation.
The report dismissed the claims that Stakeknife supposedly saved “hundreds” of lives through his cooperation with the authorities, calling them “implausible” and “rooted in fables.” Boutcher also told a press conference on Friday that “more lives [were] lost than saved” as a result of his activities.
Boutcher admitted, citing the report’s findings, that the British security services allowed murders to take place to protect the identity of its informants within the IRA. He also said that “maverick culture” was created around the handling of agents, which was practiced “off the books.”
“Murders that should and could have been prevented were allowed to take place,” the police chief said. “State agents do need to be protected through anonymity and secrecy, but that protection cannot confer de facto immunity or a right to act with impunity as that would be wholly incompatible with the rule of law and human rights,” he added.
Kevin Winters, a lawyer representing 12 families of murder victims linked to the Operation Kenova investigation, accused the authorities of de facto conspiring with terrorists to murder British nationals for their own gains.
“We are left with the horrendous conclusion and takeaway message that both the state and the IRA were co-conspirators in the murder of some of its citizens,” he told journalists, as cited by the Guardian.
The paper did not officially reveal the agent’s identity. Neither did Boutcher, who cited the government’s confidentiality policy. He still said that “we found strong evidence of very serious criminality on the part of Mr Scappaticci and his prosecution would have been in the interests of victims, families and justice.”
Scappaticci denied he was the Stakeknife. He died aged 77 in April 2023, without facing any charges.
The UK government said it would not comment on the report since its findings were described as interim
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US Intelligence Agencies Are Targeting ‘Gaming’ Platforms
Last summer, a US Federal Judge issued an injunction on the Biden administration’s contact with social media companies regarding content moderation, writing that it may have “arguably involved the most massive attack against free speech in United States history.”
According to a new government report, the FBI, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and other agencies are working with what it describes as “gaming companies” to combat “domestic violent extremist content.”
The report notes that the DHS regularly meets with companies, which “share information with the [DHS intelligence branch] I&A about online activities promoting domestic violent extremism” and that the FBI regularly holds briefings with the companies about what it perceives as threats.
The companies interviewed in the Government Accountability Office (GAO) report include Roblox Corporation, publisher of the mega-popular online gaming platform Roblox that relies on user-generated content, Discord a social media and chat platform that includes invite-only spaces and was the site of the recent Pentagon leak and Reddit, a social media site with sub-communities, including but not in any way limited to gaming communities.
A video game publisher and social media company were also mentioned in the report but left unnamed. The report, requested by the US House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee notes that the FBI and DHS have “mechanisms for sharing information with, and receiving information from, social media and gaming companies about domestic violent extremism” including using “non-governmental organizations” regular meetings and “field office relationships with local companies.”
In the aforementioned Missouri v Biden case, the Fifth Circuit ruled that the White House, the Surgeon General’s office and the FBI “coerced [social media] platforms to make their moderation decisions by the way of intimidating messages and threats of adverse consequences” and “significantly encouraged the platforms’ decisions by commandeering their decision-making process, both in violation of the First Amendment.”
The practice described in the GAO report, regular meetings and reports with the companies, reflect the tactics used by the Biden administration to limit online speech. However, the report does not mention if the FBI and DHS make moderation requests and notes that both agencies are moving with caution regarding their interactions with the companies due to the Missouri v Biden case.
“I&A officials stated that they are refraining from such activities where necessary, while awaiting a final ruling,” and the FBI “continues to proceed cautiously, adding an additional layer of review and approval by the FBI Office of the General Counsel with respect to certain communications with social media platforms,” the report states.
Last March, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) the Senate Judiciary Committee Chair sent letters to several gaming companies, including Valve, Activision, Blizzard, Epic Games, Riot Games, Roblox Corporation and Take-Two Interactive, demanding that they take stronger actions to police gamers and their content. “For years extremists have exploited the community-building aspects of games to spread propaganda, radicalize and recruit users and mobilize for terrorist activities,” Durbin’s letters read, pointing to a survey by the Anti-Defamation League which found that a significant percentage of gamers (29% of adult players of Dota 2, for example) say they have encountered white-supremacist extremism while playing online.
The GAO report notes that some extremists will use watered-down messages on larger, more heavily censored, platforms to draw in recruits to smaller or private platforms where their true intentions can be spoken about openly. While not mentioned by name during this section, this seems to be a reference to Discord, which typically involves invite-only rooms. The report notes that the DHS and other agencies have more difficulty monitoring these sites, as well as audio-only discussions.
While the GAO report notes that the FBI and DHS have programs meant to counter extremism on gaming platforms, it recommended that the two agencies develop an “overarching strategy” to handle misinformation and extremism on the platforms.
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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says “I Would Support”
Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump into the race to become the next Senate GOP leader, and Elon Musk was quick to support the idea. Republicans must find a successor for periodically malfunctioning Mitch McConnell, who recently announced he’ll step down in November, though intending to keep his Senate seat until his term ends in January 2027, when he’d be within weeks of turning 86.
So far, the announced field consists of two quintessential establishment types: John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota. While John Barrasso’s name had been thrown around as one of “The Three Johns” considered top contenders, the Wyoming senator on Tuesday said he’ll instead seek the number two slot as party whip.
Paul used X to tease his potential bid for the position which — if the GOP takes back the upper chamber in November — could graduate from Minority Leader to Majority Leader. He started by telling his 5.1 million followers he’d had lots of people asking him about his interest in running…
Thousands of people have been asking if I’d run for Senate leadership…
— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) March 8, 2024
…then followed up with a poll in which he predictably annihilated Cornyn and Thune, taking a 96% share as of Friday night, with the other two below 2% each.
??️VOTE NOW ?️ ? Who would you like to be the next Senate leader?
— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) March 8, 2024
Elon Musk was quick to back the idea of Paul as GOP leader, while daring Cornyn and Thune to follow Paul’s lead by throwing their names out for consideration by the Twitter-verse X-verse.
I would support Rand Paul and suspect that other candidates will not actually run polls out of concern for the results, but let’s see if they will!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 8, 2024
Paul has been a stalwart opponent of security-state mass surveillance, foreign interventionism — to include shoveling billions of dollars into the proxy war in Ukraine — and out-of-control spending in general. He demonstrated the latter passion on the Senate floor this week as he ridiculed the latest kick-the-can spending package:
This bill is an insult to the American people. The earmarks are all the wasteful spending that you could ever hope to see, and it should be defeated. Read more: https://t.co/Jt8K5iucA4 pic.twitter.com/I5okd4QgDg
— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) March 8, 2024
In February, Paul used Senate rules to force his colleagues into a grueling Super Bowl weekend of votes, as he worked to derail a $95 billion foreign aid bill. “I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” said Paul. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”
Don’t expect a Majority Leader Paul to ditch the filibuster — he’s been a hardy user of the legislative delay tactic. In 2013, he spoke for 13 hours to fight the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director. In 2015, he orated for 10-and-a-half-hours to oppose extension of the Patriot Act.
Among the general public, Paul is probably best known as Capitol Hill’s chief tormentor of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease during the Covid-19 pandemic. Paul says the evidence indicates the virus emerged from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology. He’s accused Fauci and other members of the US government public health apparatus of evading questions about their funding of the Chinese lab’s “gain of function” research, which takes natural viruses and morphs them into something more dangerous. Paul has pointedly said that Fauci committed perjury in congressional hearings and that he belongs in jail “without question.”
Musk is neither the only nor the first noteworthy figure to back Paul for party leader. Just hours after McConnell announced his upcoming step-down from leadership, independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr voiced his support:
Mitch McConnell, who has served in the Senate for almost 40 years, announced he’ll step down this November.
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) February 28, 2024
Part of public service is about knowing when to usher in a new generation. It’s time to promote leaders in Washington, DC who won’t kowtow to the military contractors or…
In a testament to the extent to which the establishment recoils at the libertarian-minded Paul, mainstream media outlets — which have been quick to report on other developments in the majority leader race — pretended not to notice that Paul had signaled his interest in the job. More than 24 hours after Paul’s test-the-waters tweet-fest began, not a single major outlet had brought it to the attention of their audience.
That may be his strongest endorsement yet.
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