The Impact of Interest Rates on Economic Growth
For many years, the relationship between interest rates and economic growth has been a major focus of economic theory and policy discussions. According to Austrian theory, interest rates are an important signal in a market economy that balances the time preferences of borrowers and savers, not only a tool that central banks can manage in an effort to maintain economic stability. Severe economic distortions and malinvestments may result from misinterpreting or ignoring this indication.
The Nature of Interest Rates
Interest rates naturally arise from the interaction of individual time preferences, according to Austrian economics. The degree to which people favor current things over future commodities is referred to as time preference. Greater readiness to postpone consumption and save for the future is reflected in lower time preference, whereas higher time preference is more strongly associated with present consumption.
Interest rates maintain a balance between the supply of savings (or postponed consumption) and the demand for investment capital in a free market. By maintaining this equilibrium, resources are distributed effectively across time, matching output to customer demands. Interest rates decrease as people save more, which encourages investment in long-term projects. On the other hand, when people want to consume things right away, interest rates go up, telling companies to concentrate on producing goods that can be consumed quickly.
Central Bank Interventions and Economic Distortions
This natural coordination is distorted, —according to the Austrian School, which includes Friedrich Hayek and Ludwig von Mises, —by central banks setting artificially low interest rates. Central banks stimulate excessive borrowing and investment by maintaining interest rates below the level set by actual market interactions, especially in long-term, capital-intensive projects that might not be viable.
What Austrians refer to as malinvestmentis the result of this mismatch between genuine consumer desires and investment: money spent on initiatives that aren’t supported by consumer demand or real savings. These artificially low interest rates fuel the boom phase of the business cycle, which is marked by fast economic expansion and speculative investments. Nevertheless, these initiatives collapse when it becomes clear that there are not enough savings, which causes a bust and a recession.
Historical Evidence
A multitude of instances of the ramifications of interest rate manipulation may be found throughout the history of economic cycles. For example, the 1920s saw massive monetary expansion and artificially low interest rates, which were followed by the Great Depression. Similar low interest rates and easy lending conditions preceded the 2008 financial crisis, which resulted in a housing bubble and subsequent financial collapse.
Policy Implications
According to Austrian theory, letting the free market set interest rates is the key to long-term economic progress. This entails reducing the amount of time that central banks intervene and allowing savers and borrowers to naturally coordinate. Maintaining sound money, minimizing government meddling in the financial markets, and creating an atmosphere that allows market signals to flow freely should be the core objectives of policy.
Moreover, fostering personal savings and financial knowledge can support the organic underpinnings of a robust economy. The economy as a whole gains from more steady and sustainable growth when people recognize the value of saving and investing sensibly.
Conclusion
Interest rates are a basic market signal that represents the collective time preferences of people within an economy, not just another variable that can be changed at will. The Austrian viewpoint emphasizes the significance of letting market forces set interest rates and emphasizes the risks associated with central bank intervention. We may steer clear of the traps associated with boom-and-bust cycles and create the conditions for true, sustained economic prosperity by following these guidelines.
MUST WATCH: Dr. David Martin Interview — U.S. Gov. Is Coordinating A Depopulation Program Against The World
Watch: Predator Hunter Alex Rosen Protests X Suspension After Viral Bust Featuring Missouri SOS Candidate
Top internet pedo catcher Alex Rosen had his X account mysteriously suspended on Monday, with tons of other users tagging the social media platform’s owner Elon Musk in frustration.
Rosen released a video via the Predator Poachers account addressing the suspension.
Message from Alex Rosen about the suspension of @ifightforkids on X
— Predator Poachers (@PPoachersLIVE) July 1, 2024
He was banned for no reason.
FREE ALEX!
Share this and let’s get it to @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/ixEOYm8fMz
According to Rosen, “Twitter finally said, ‘No more of this.’ They don’t wanna show our work, they think for whatever reason we’re breaking the rules even though they gave us no reason at all. That 293,000 followers, about abut 500 subscribers, they just put the axe on us.”
He continued to question X’s reason for suspending his account, saying, “I don’t know why Twitter would want to axe this, I mean we really thought Elon Musk was promoting a free speech platform, that he was supporting ending child exploitation and apparently not.”
The suspension comes just after Rosen teamed up with Republican Missouri Secretary of State candidate Valentina Gomez for a bust that went viral online.
?I caught a pedophile with @iFightForKids in Missouri? pic.twitter.com/z9GP2IjVkn
— Valentina Gomez (@ValentinaForSOS) July 1, 2024
Gomez posted to X, explaining, “I caught a pedophile with Alex Rosen and less than 24 hours later, his account got suspended and my Wikipedia page is deleted. This isn’t a coincidence. Corrupt pedophiles in our government are afraid.”
I caught a pedophile with Alex Rosen and less than 24 hours later, his account got suspended and my Wikipedia page is deleted. This isn’t a coincidence. Corrupt pedophiles in our government are afraid.
— Valentina Gomez (@ValentinaForSOS) July 1, 2024
Check out some of the X support for Rosen below:
??BREAKING NEWS: Alex Rosen the pedophile hunter that exposed the YouTuber EDP45, and the Democrat head of the “LGBTQ Dems of Maryland” was suspended on X.
— Dom Lucre | Breaker of Narratives (@dom_lucre) July 1, 2024
He was also kicked out of Hillary Clinton speech for exposing Bill Clinton. There has been no confirmation on why… pic.twitter.com/L7kvSNK9i3
Why did Alex Rosen get suspended? He’s been doing phenomenal work catching child predators and protecting kids. pic.twitter.com/7AZQAltDWB
— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) July 1, 2024
BREAKING: X has suspended @iFightForKids without giving a reason.
— I Meme Therefore I Am ?? (@ImMeme0) July 1, 2024
INSANITY!
Please restore Alex Rosen account! @elonmusk @X @Support pic.twitter.com/Y7ZIgh4Y6C
Free Alex Rosen@iFightforkids pic.twitter.com/KICbvIJuIZ
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) July 1, 2024
What the heck? Why was Alex Rosen suspended? pic.twitter.com/92Fbk4rYIH
— Clown World ™ ? (@ClownWorld_) July 1, 2024
?#BANNED: Alex Rosen (@iFightForKids) was quickly banned after posting this tweet. pic.twitter.com/EqCmiIibW1
— Unfiltered Truth (@UnfiltdTruth) July 1, 2024
@elonmusk why is Alex Rosen suspended?
— Hodgetwins (@hodgetwins) July 1, 2024
All he does is catch pedophiles and child predators, this is a mistake. pic.twitter.com/8XLaFoE4Yg
Hey @elonmusk @ifightforkids (Alex Rosen) was doing amazing work catching Pedophiles and doing it lawfully. Can you look into why he was removed from the platform?
— Hi-Rez The Rapper (@HiRezTheRapper) July 1, 2024
Not the best look to remove him. I’m sure it was a mistake. Many of us Would love his reinstatement!
BBC Presenter Calls on Biden to ‘Hurry Up and Have Trump Murdered,’ Deletes Post
A BBC radio presenter declared Joe Biden should use the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling to assassinate presidential rival Donald Trump, later deleting his post claiming it was made in jest.
Following the court’s decision Monday, BBC Radio 4 “Briefing Room” host David Aaronovitch, followed by over 180K, wrote on X, “If I was Biden I’d hurry up and have Trump murdered on the basis that he is a threat to America’s security #SCOTUS.”
The remark sparked backlash on social media, with Aaronovitch spending the next hour explaining why it was satirical, and telling one user accusing him of suffering Trump Derangement Syndrome his post was in reference to the Supreme Court ruling.
Did you see the Supreme Court ruling Jack? Or were you too busy with your head up Nigel Farage’s derriere?
— David Aaronovitch (@DAaronovitch) July 1, 2024
Within an hour, Aaronovitch proceeded to delete the post, claiming he was angry people didn’t get the “joke” about assassinating a former US president.
There’s now a far right pile on suggesting that my tweet about the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity is an incitement to violence when it’s plainly a satire. So I’m deleting it. If nothing else though it’s given me a map of some the daftest people on this site.
— David Aaronovitch (@DAaronovitch) July 1, 2024
“There is now a far right pile-on suggesting that my tweet about the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity is an incitement to violence when it’s plainly a satire. So I’m deleting it. If nothing else though it’s given me a map of some of the daftest people on this site,” he claimed, adding, “Note by the way that not one of them has a problem with the ruling itself.”
The BBC did not appear to have issued a statement addressing Aaronovitch’s as of writing.
The BBC presenter’s unhinged post came as a cacophony of leftists on social media reacted to SCOTUS’ decision by calling on Joe Biden to order an assassination on former President Donald Trump, arguing he’d be immune from prosecution if it was an “official” act.
The globalists are increasing their attacks on Infowars and the stakes have never been higher!
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Ron Paul: The Debate Should Be a Wake-Up Call For Americans
There were plenty of surprises in last week’s presidential debate. For one, Americans who rely on the mainstream media for their news learned that they had been lied to for the past three years about President Biden’s capability to do the job he was elected to do.
The realization that the media has been lying for years about Biden is a positive development, as, hopefully, thoughtful Americans might begin wondering what else the media has been lying about. For example, they will find out that the media has been lying to them for years about Russia and Ukraine and about the Middle East and elsewhere. They will find out that our hyper-interventionist foreign policy does not make us safer and more free, but the opposite.
Unfortunately for most Americans, foreign policy is something that happens “over there,” with few direct effects back home. Dumping nearly $200 billion into the lost cause called “Ukraine” may at most seem like an annoyance to many Americans, but it’s not like they are being snatched up by gangs of military recruiters and sent to the front line as is happening to Ukrainian men.
However, $200 billion is real money and the effect on our economy is also real. The bill will be paid by each American family indirectly through the inflation “tax.” Each dollar created out of thin air and spent on the Ukraine debacle devalues the rest of the dollars in circulation.
The danger posed by our foreign policy seemed to escape both candidates, who each tried to convince us they were “tougher” than the other. Despite Donald Trump’s sober and accurate warning that Joe Biden has taken us to the brink of World War III, his solution to the problem is doing more of the same. His stated foreign policy seems to be that were he in office the rest of the world would not dare do anything against his will.
He would have been so tough that Russian president Vladimir Putin would never have dared to invade Ukraine, he claimed. He would have been so tough that Hamas would never have dared attack Israel on October 7th. It’s only Joe Biden’s “weakness” that leads to these disastrous foreign policy outcomes.
But the world does not work that way. Decades of US sanctions placed on any country that fails to do what Washington demands have backfired and led to the emergence of a block of countries united in their resistance to American dictates. Being “tough” on less-powerful countries may work…until it doesn’t. That’s where we are today.
Neither candidate seems to realize that the world has changed.
I have always said that real strength in foreign policy comes from restraint. To prevent these bad outcomes everywhere, stop intervening everywhere. It is not “toughness” that would have prevented Russia from taking action against Ukraine. It is restraint. Not launching a coup in Ukraine in 2014 would have prevented the disastrous war in Ukraine. Just like not stirring up trouble in the South China Sea would prevent a war with China. Not continuing to occupy and intervene in the Middle East would prevent a major regional war which might include Iran and other big players in the region.
Restraint is the real toughness. Non-intervention is the only foreign policy that will keep us safe and free. We’ve tried it the other way and it does not work. Let’s try something different.
This article first appeared at RonPaulInstitute.org.
CNN Host Van Jones: ‘Very Partisan’ Supreme Court Justices ‘Look Like They’re Wearing MAGA Hats’
CNN political commentator Van Jones claimed the United States Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity released on Monday left the justices looking “very partisan.”
The 6-3 ruling found former presidents have total immunity from prosecution for any official presidential acts, but do not have immunity for any unofficial acts.
“It makes the Supreme Court look very partisan. They’re supposed to be wearing these kind of black and white umpire jerseys or whatever. They look like they’re wearing red jerseys or MAGA hats,” Jones said.
Van Jones with a historically awful take on SCOTUS’ immunity ruling upholding over 40 years of legal precedent, calling it a “license to thug”:
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) July 1, 2024
“It makes the Supreme Court look very partisan. They’re supposed to be wearing black and white umpire jerseys. They look like they’re… pic.twitter.com/I4TU5b80u2
“It’s also scary,” he continued. “What is Trump gonna do? If Trump gets elected and there’s this idea that he can get away with even more stuff, that’s really, really scary for the public because he already ran over every norm he could.”
“Politically, it’s almost like a license to thug in a way. Like, you can do whatever you want and the Supreme Court is probably gonna let you get away with it. That is very frightening in this case, so I’m very concerned,” the CNN commentator added.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) claimed, “the Supreme Court has gone rogue with its decision,” and that Trump’s claim of presidential immunity in his ongoing court case is “an insult to the vision of our founders.”
Today, the Supreme Court has gone rogue with its decision, violating the foundational American principle that no one is above the law.
The former president’s claim of total presidential immunity is an insult to the vision of our founders, who declared independence from a King.— Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) July 1, 2024
Minnesota Democrat Congresswoman Ilhan Omar told her X followers SCOTUS “can no longer be trusted to uphold the Constitution.”
The Supreme Court can no longer be trusted to uphold the Constitution.
— Ilhan Omar (@IlhanMN) July 1, 2024
If Donald Trump is reelected, this convicted felon, rapist, and twice-impeached former President will be able to do whatever the hell he wants.
It’s a scary day for American democracy.
The left is collectively losing it over the SCOTUS decision, with some top pundits and Democrat shills suggesting Biden take advantage of presidential immunity by ordering Seal Team 6 to assassinate Trump.
According to the Supreme Court, Biden could now send in Seal Team 6 to take all of them out. He could send in the military to take out Trump. He has “immunity” for official acts now!
— Harry Sisson (@harryjsisson) July 1, 2024
??After @kaitlancollins post, Leftist X is riddled with comments calling on President Biden to assassinate President Trump. Disgusting behavior. @elonmusk @SecretService pic.twitter.com/vdNHYjts5x
— RealBenGeller (@RealBenGeller) July 1, 2024
The FED-Induced Housing Crisis
While the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies are publicized as protecting the American people, they are causing the American dream of homeownership to slip away.
By raising the federal funds rate to combat their self-inflicted inflation, the Fed has driven up mortgage costs, making it harder for aspiring homeowners to secure a place in the housing market. These policies have resigned aspiring homeowners to a future of perpetual renting.
At the beginning of 2022, the federal funds rate was 0.08%. As of June 2024, that number is 5.33%. The rate hike was in response to the rampant inflation of previous years. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022, far exceeding the Fed’s 2% target. This spike was caused by the trillion-dollar infrastructure bills, COVID stimulus packages, and other imprudent government expenditures that had motivated the FED to increase the money supply. This inflation erodes purchasing power, increasing the cost of living for millions of Americans. With the economy in this desperate state, the FED attempted to counteract it with a federal funds rate surge. While increasing this rate is a proven tool to combat inflation, it is not without cost to consumers.
The federal funds rate is the interest rate banks lend each other overnight. It effectively sets the interest rate floor for the economy. When the FED increases this rate, it creates a chain reaction that increases borrowing costs for everyone, including those seeking mortgages. In response to the federal funds rate hike, the 2021 mortgage rate of 2.65% skyrocketed to 7.74% in June 2024.
This surge is devastating for potential homebuyers. Higher mortgage rates reduce what potential homeowners can afford. More of their monthly payment goes towards interest rather than principal, drastically affecting their buying power. For every 1% increase in mortgage rates, a buyer’s purchasing power decreases by approximately 13.80%. This means that a potential buyer who could previously afford a $750,000 home may now only qualify for a $646,500 home, assuming a fixed amount for a down payment.
This pushes previously affordable homes out of reach for many buyers and slows the housing market. According to the National Association of Realtors, the Housing Affordability Index dropped from 148.2 in 2021 to 98.2 in 2023, indicating a significant decrease in the ability of a median-income family to afford a median-priced home. This decline in affordability has led to a slowdown in home sales, with existing home sales falling from 6.12 million in 2021 to 4.09 million in 2023.
For borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), the impact of federal funds rate hikes is even more direct. The federal funds rate influences the financial indices to which ARMs are tied. As the rate increases, so does the index, leading to higher monthly payments for ARM holders. This process creates financial strain for borrowers who didn’t anticipate such increases when they initially took out their loans.
Federal funds rate hikes have also had broader economic implications. The housing market is a crucial driver of economic activity, influencing everything from construction and real estate services to consumer spending on household goods. Housing-related activities typically account for 15-18% of GDP and the recent downturn has affected various sectors. For instance, new housing starts declined from 1.61 million in 2021 to 1.41 million in 2023, reflecting the cooling effect of higher rates on construction activity. When mortgage rates climb and home buying slows, these sectors experience a downturn, rippling throughout the economy.
Raising the federal funds rate is one of the FED’s classic inflation reduction methods. However, the root of the problem is the source of the inflation. Wasteful government spending and expansionary monetary policy were the origin of the crisis. The current regime believes frivolous expenditures and printing money won’t lead to negative consequences. But for the millions of Americans struggling to buy a home, or crushed by the crippling cost of living, these policies are far from benign. For rich politicians whose financial futures are set, the gravity of the situation may not be evident. But for homeless, hungry Americans, the time for action is now.
MUST WATCH: Dr. David Martin Interview — U.S. Gov. Is Coordinating A Depopulation Program Against The World