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Jack Smith’s team is a reassembly of the Deep State agents employed by Robert Mueller, according to an investigation by Politico. The Clinton exoneration FBI Team became the Trump investigation FBI Team (Crossfire Hurricane) -which […]

The post Politico: Jack Smith’s ‘Team’ Are Same Deep State Agents That Worked for Robert Mueller appeared first on The People’s Voice.

The mass deaths seen so far from the mRNA COVID jabs are just the tip of the iceberg of the horrors of what’s about to come. Former Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation scientist and vaccine […]

The post Bill Gates Scientist Admits: ‘50% of Vaccinated People Will Soon Die’ appeared first on The People’s Voice.

‘I can tell you for a fact we’re going to hear a lot more about Jeffrey Epstein in the coming year and you may be even hearing from him directly.’

A video going viral online shows the moment journalist Megyn Kelly hinted she knows information about deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein that can’t yet be revealed.

The strange remark came during a recent airing of The Megyn Kelly Show where the former mainstream news anchor told her audience, “We’re not done with Jeffrey Epstein. I can tell you that for a fact. I can’t tell you how I know but I can tell you for a fact we’re going to hear a lot more about Jeffrey Epstein in the coming year and you may be even hearing from him directly. More on that as I’m aloud to tell you.”

The bizarre comment sent the internet into a spiral of speculation with many people asking if this means Epstein is still alive.

This could be the case, or there could be a video recording of the wealthy pedo speaking to the world.

Of course, there have been theories surrounding Epstein’s mysterious death since the day it was announced as some people believe he was murdered instead of committing suicide while others suggest he never died at all and was switched with a doppelganger or some sort of fake body.

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This is a huge issue – especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the border – and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened

While the prevailing post-payrolls narrative has focused on the surprisingly strong headline payrolls number (at 216K, this not only came above most estimates but was the highest in 4 months, denting the Fed’s case for a March rate cut) and the far stronger than expected hourly earnings (which rose to 4.1%, but only because hours worked dropped again to 34.3, a level last seen in the pre-covid days from 34.4) and unchanged unemployment rate, which at 3.7% further makes the case for rate cuts quite challenging, a closer look at the details of today’s jobs report reveals just how ugly the reality behind the Budget-Busting Bidenomics truly is.

Let’s start with the now monthly revisions.

Regular readers are aware that earlier this year we spotted a peculiar trend when it comes to economic data releases by the Biden admin which  – without fail – had been revised lower…

… and this month was no different. In fact, as shown in the chart below, the jobs print from 10 of the past 11 months has been revised lower! Why? So that the White House can take credit for a strong number (one which also sparks algorithmic buying in the market) only to quietly revise it lower one and two months later when nobody is looking.

But that’s just the start. Next we turn to the numbers behind the headline job prints which were rather terrible: the monthly nonfarm payrolls (from the Establishment Survey) may have been weak at 216K but the far more accurate Household Survey showed that the number of Employed workers actually collapsed by an unprecedented 683K, the biggest drop since the US economy was shutdown by covid!

Even scarier, while the monthly grind higher in the payrolls number (pulled from the far less accurate Establishment Survey) means that US jobs hit a record high every month with bizarre consistency and in December this was certainly the case, the total nonfarm employment number rose to an all time high 157.232 million, the abovementioned collapse in US Employment (per Household survey) meant that there were only 161.183 million employed people in the US, the lowest since June, with the now traditional divergence between these two surveys glaringly obvious in the chart below.

While that’s bad, unfortunately it gets much worse, because while we already know that there is something very troubling with jobs quantitatively, the Household Survey also looks at the quality of jobs gained or lost, and specifically it breaks down the jobs into full-time and part-time jobs (Source: Table A-9).

Here, one look at this month’s adjustment and it’s literally a shocker: you will not hear anyone from the Biden admin, the mainstream media, or associated economist cheerleaders mention this, but the BLS reported that in December the number of full-time jobs plunged by 1.531 million to 133.2 million, the biggest monthly drop since the record covid crash of 14.7 million jobs!

Of course, as full-time jobs crashed, something had to offset the plunge, and sure enough, it was all in the surge of part-time workers. In December, the number of part-timers soared by a whopping 762,000, the second highest monthly increase since the covid lockdowns, to 27.794 million, the highest print since March 2018!

Putting this in context, it means that since February of 2023, the US has not added a single full-time job (in fact it has lost 34,000), while adding 774 part-time jobs!

But wait, there’s more, because going back to a quantitative read of the data, we look at the number of multiple jobholders – those workers who have to work more than one job at a time to make ends meet. In December, that number surged by 222K, and at 8.565 million was the highest print on record!

Putting it all together, if one believes the headlines, in December the US added 216K payrolls (which included a record number of double-counted multiple jobholders), and yet the number of employed workers actually crashed by 683K, the biggest drop in 4 years. Furthermore, taking a closer look at the composition we find that in December, the number of well-paid, full-time workers collapsed by a near record 1.5 million, offset by a 762K surge in part-time workers. As for the balance, it was the 222K people who discovered last month that to keep up with the economic miracle that is Bidenomics, they need to work at least one more job.

In short: December was a catastrophic month for the jobs market, which is why we expect the usual theater: non-stop spin and lies from the Biden admin, and not a single relevant question from the liberal media whose job is not to educate or inform, but to carry water, spread lies and enable propaganda.

But wait there’s even more, because just as we enter the peak of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be (illegally) casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in December, the number of native-born worker

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 4 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers, but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since 2018!

This is a huge issue – especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the border – and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened – i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin. Which is also why the Biden admin will do everything in his power to insure there is no official recession before November… and is why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose.

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The NWO’s 2024 Black Swan Tell

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The Fed is deeply influenced by political dynamics and, with the 2024 presidential election around the corner, it’s already maneuvering to align with the political incumbent.

Peter Schiff left a stark warning in his recent podcast: “2024 could be a horrible year for the dollar.” 

Here are 3 big reasons why Peter thinks inflation might rise even higher this year.

1. The Fed wants to boost Biden’s reelection

The Fed is deeply influenced by political dynamics and, with the 2024 presidential election around the corner, it’s already maneuvering to align with the political incumbent.

“I think that the Fed is going to be doing everything it can to try to reelect Biden or whoever may run if Biden does not… The Fed chairman always wants to play ball with whichever Administration is in power.”

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This has less to do with blatant political bias and more to do with self-preservation.

The President plays a decisive role in appointing the Fed chair. Given this, Jerome Powell is incentivized to prioritize monetary policies that could boost a Biden reelection. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing.

The Fed already announced considerably lower interest rates in 2024 through 2025, strategically timed for this year’s US election.

Peter predicts that the Fed will continue its dovish, inflationary policies through the end of this election year.

2. US Economic “Strength” Rides on Inflation

The perceived strength of the US economy is largely illusory, a facade created by inflationary policies rather than genuine economic growth.

Peter explains that higher stock market indexes and other financial indicators in 2023 reflect investor expectations of inflationary Fed stimulus rather than genuine economic progress:

“Investors are anticipating a big bond rally. That’s what they think. The Fed is going to going to go back to zero or close to it back to quantitative easing. And so they’re factoring all this in. They’re pricing this easing cycle into the markets now. They’re betting on it.”

Rather than ruin the bets of the broader economy and suffer a massive stock market collapse, the Fed would rather keep monetary policy loose. Congress, too, would prefer to maintain high budgets than risk losing reelection.

This all drives up inflation, which Peter dubs as “the only magic trick they have.”

3. U.S. Trade Deficits Contribute

Peter links the dollar’s weakening to recent large U.S. trade deficits. A cheap dollar will mean higher commodity prices and even higher trade deficits, which in turn will undermine the dollar further. 

Peter explains:

There’s no way that inflation is going to come down in an environment where the dollar is that weak, because that’s going to really push up commodity prices. That’s going to push up our trade deficit… These big trade deficits are going to weigh heavily on the dollar.”

We’re entering a classic scenario where a depreciating currency contributes to domestic inflation. Trade deficits are not just a symptom of economic issues but also a causative factor in the declining value of the dollar.

As long as the U.S. continues to run these deficits, the pressure on the dollar will persist.

Meanwhile, investors are flocking to other safe haven assets, like the Swiss Franc.

In 2023, the Franc was up a whopping 10%:

That is a very negative sign for the dollar for 2024 and a positive sign for gold because people are buying the Swiss frank as a safe haven. Gold is an even safer haven than the Swiss franc, but the fact that the Swiss franc is gaining so much on the dollar is an indication that people are leery of the dollar.”

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The NWO’s 2024 Black Swan Tell

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When the Fed starts cutting rates, it’s a pretty safe bet that a recession is on the way.

The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes to its December meeting yesterday, and the minutes further strengthen the view held by many Wall Street investors and observers that the Fed plans to implement rate cuts by the middle of 2024. Specifically, the most recent Fed survey of market participants “suggested that the first reduction in the policy rate would occur in June.” 

This contrasts only slightly with the FOMC members themselves, who, in their own internal survey (i.e., the Summary of Economic Projections,or SEP) overwhelmingly suggests a cut to the policy rate of at least 50 basis points this year. Or as the minutes put it: “almost all participants indicated that, reflecting the improvements in their inflation outlooks, their baseline projections implied that a lower target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate by the end of 2024.”

This all gives the impression that the Fed is all set for imminent rate cuts. The Fed’s overall messaging, however, is designed to do anything but send a clear message. This phenomenon helps illustrate how ephemeral is Fed policy at any given time, and how political. The Fed’s muddled messaging, as we’ll see below, helps to illustrate how the Fed seeks to serve various political interests while also trying to avoid the political pitfalls of both high price inflation and economic stagnation. 

For example, one month before this most recent shift toward lowering the policy rate, Powell stressed that the committee had no plan at all for cutting the policy rate, telling reporters in November: 

The fact is the committee is not thinking about rate cuts right now at all. We’re not talking about rate cuts … We’re still very focused on the first question, which is ‘have we achieved a stance of monetary policy that’s sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time, sustainably?’ That is the question we’re focusing on.

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Of course, as of the December meeting, the price inflation rate had not returned to the arbitrary two-percent target that the Fed invented about 20 years ago. The early-December reading of the CPI (minus food and energy) was at 3.9 percent, nearly double the target rate. Moreover, employment has only slightly softened thanks to sticky effects of the huge monetary inflation that occurred during 2020 and 2021. Yet, to virtually no one’s surprise—and contrary to Powell’s earlier claims—the Fed pivoted to “talking about rate cuts” with the speed of lightning and without achieving its stated goals. 

Powell’s comments prompted a market rally as investors took Powell comments to mean a new round of easy money is in the works for 2024. This is almost certainly true, but the Fed personnel also simultaneously dialed back the easy-money talk. New York Fed president John Williams the next day announced “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now.”

That wasn’t the end of it, though. A day after Williams said rate cuts weren’t really on the table, the Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee announced the Fed should start worrying about employment. As Goolsbee put it: “we’ve got to think about how restrictive do we want to be and are there dangers on the employment side of the mandate?” What he means is the Fed has worried about inflation long enough, and now it’s time to turn back to easy money to keep employment high. 

The Fed Is a Political Institution

How are we to interpret all these mixed messages? We certainly should not look at it all as if the Fed were filled with dispassionate scholars who merely go where the numbers take them. When Fed officials claim to be “data driven” they are either lying or kidding themselves. The Federal Reserve is not a market institution. It is a political one.  Powell and the FOMC are trying to play a complex political game of balancing expectations among certain constituent groups.

As Tho Bishop notes, the Fed in an election year will at the very least seek to avoid raising the target rate any further since that could trigger a recession quickly. The Fed wants to keep the administration happy—thus has it been for decades. Indeed, to this end, the Fed would prefer to cut the target rate immediately. But the Fed also fears public reaction to more price inflation—which a rate cut is likely to fuel. That means a mere “pause” on the target rate. 

The Fed wants it both ways, though, and one strategy it uses to pursue this is to repeatedly hint that rate cuts are on the horizon—without actually cutting the policy rate. After all, finance students are taught that investors calculate value in terms of expected future cash flows. So, if the Fed is out there suggesting that “rate cuts are coming”—as the FOMC’s SEP clearly suggests—this tells investors that easy-money-dependent cash flows will improve “soon.” What qualifies as “soon” is never quite defined ahead of time, but that doesn’t matter to the Fed as it plays the expectations game. 

This way, the Fed can hold the target rate steady out of fear of price inflation on the one hand. On the other hand, it can vaguely promise rate cuts at the first sign of real trouble. 

We can see this strategy in the FOMC December minutes which do little to make any hard pronouncements about rate cuts.  The minutes are more explicit, however, about whether the target policy rate will increase, and the document strongly suggests that the policy rate is “likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle.” I have predicted this since the Fed “paused” at 5.5 percent last summer. It is very rare at the FOMC goes back to raising rates after pausing the rate for more than two months. 

Beware What Comes After Rate Cuts 

Wall Street and Biden administration officials will continue to push for cuts to the policy rate. Yet, in our current economic situation, neither Wall Street nor the White House should expect cuts to produce any economic miracles. As Daniel Lacalle writes “central banks may cut rates with no real effect on the productive economy and solve nothing. There may be a significant contraction in economic activity even if rates decline, as credit availability worsens even with declining rates, but markets keep inflating the financial bubble.” This happens when we’re in an economy in which the private economy outside the financial sector is in recession, but the aggregated economy doesn’t look so bad thanks to financial bubbles and government spending. In other words, Lacalle is telling us rate cuts right now would help Wall Street and Washington, but do little to help employment on Main Street. 

So when will the Fed cut rates again? The cuts will come when Powell, et al, fear recession more than inflation. If the Fed starts cutting rates aggressively, that means the Fed is very afraid. So, if Wall Street actually gets what it wants—a target-rate cut of, say, 75 basis points or more—that’s a signal that the Fed sees very bad news on the horizon. The Fed will never admit it sees trouble ahead. After all, then-chairman Bernanke insisted there was no recession ahead in 2008. You’ll know the Fed sees trouble when it starts cutting rates. 

We can see this play out in the lag between rate cuts and the onset of recessions. As the graph shows, rate cuts tend to begin several months before recessions become obvious: 

So, when the Fed starts cutting rates, it’s a pretty safe bet that a recession is on the way. Bigger rate cuts also tend to signal bigger problems. Before the public catches on, however, the Fed can get away with vague, muddled, and contradictory messages that given the impression the Fed is fine tuning a delicate economic instrument. In reality, the Fed is merely playing politics.

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The NWO’s 2024 Black Swan Tell

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