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More Than Half of Migrant Deaths Are From Drowning

More Than Half of Migrant Deaths Are From Drowning

adminMar 19, 20243 min read

More Than Half of Migrant Deaths Are From Drowning

At least 8,565 people died on international migration routes in 2023.

At least 8,565 people died on international migration routes in 2023, according to data from the Missing Migrants Project of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). This marks the deadliest year on record, up 20 percent from one year before.

“These frightening figures collected by the Missing Migrants Project are also a reminder that we must take increased action to ensure safe migration for all, so that in ten years no people will be leaving their lives in search of a better one”, said Ugochi Daniels, IOM Deputy Director General.

At least 8,565 people died on international migration routes in 2023, according to data from the Missing Migrants Project of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). This marks the deadliest year on record, up 20 percent from one year before.

“These frightening figures collected by the Missing Migrants Project are also a reminder that we must take increased action to ensure safe migration for all, so that in ten years no people will be leaving their lives in search of a better one”, said Ugochi Daniels, IOM Deputy Director General.

At least 8,565 people died on international migration routes in 2023, according to data from the Missing Migrants Project of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). This marks the deadliest year on record, up 20 percent from one year before.

“These frightening figures collected by the Missing Migrants Project are also a reminder that we must take increased action to ensure safe migration for all, so that in ten years no people will be leaving their lives in search of a better one”, said Ugochi Daniels, IOM Deputy Director General.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, the Mediterranean is by far the deadliest route for migrants, having claimed the lives of at least 3,129 victims in 2023 alone. Last year, thousands of migrants also died in Africa (1,866), largely in the Sahara Desert and on the sea route to the Canary Islands, as well as in Asia (2,138), where hundreds of Afghans and Rohingya died after fleeing their homes.

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You will find more infographics at Statista

More than half of the dead or missing are presumed to have drowned. 13 percent of the recorded deaths were linked to vehicle accidents or hazardous transport and ten percent were victims of violence.

The IOM writes that actual figures are likely far higher due to data collection challenges, citing remote locations such as Panama’s Darien National Park as an example as well as maritime routes, where “invisible” shipwrecks occur.


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Ukraine Conflict Won’t End This Year – Türkiye

Ukraine Conflict Won’t End This Year – Türkiye

adminMar 19, 20243 min read

Ukraine Conflict Won’t End This Year – Türkiye

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has expressed concern over a potential expansion of hostilities in the region.

The Ukraine conflict is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon and has the potential to escalate even further, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

In an interview with CNN Turk on Monday, Fidan claimed that the hostilities between Moscow and Kiev have “turned into a war of attrition,” which he said is a grave matter of concern for Türkiye. 

“Strategically, we are concerned about the expansion of the [conflict] into the region,”Fidan stated, adding that this process “begins with language and then turns into action.” Europe, he warned, “should be more worried about the situation in Ukraine than we are.”

Commenting on the prospects for a peace deal, the minister said, “there is no basis to expect development on this issue in 2024. We don’t see this in the near future.” 

Read more Moscow has received no ‘serious’ proposals for talks with Kiev – Lavrov

He noted, however, that Türkiye has several initiatives to end the conflict and is one of the few countries calling for peace in NATO, the EU, and other international platforms. According to Fidan, Ankara is well positioned to pursue this policy because it has good relations with both belligerents.   

Since the start of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Türkiye has repeatedly urged Moscow and Kiev to cease the hostilities, and provided a venue for peace talks that year. While the negotiations – which revolved around the issue of Ukrainian neutrality – initially made some headway, Kiev later walked away. Moscow claimed that the talks were derailed by then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who advised Ukraine to keep fighting – a claim that Johnson denies.

On Friday, Fidan also insisted that it is “time to separate the issue of [Ukrainian] sovereignty from the ceasefire” in order to stop the conflict, stressing that this does not mean that Kiev would recognize Russia’s territorial gains. 

However, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky signed a decree barring talks with the current leadership in Moscow in the autumn of 2022, after four former Ukrainian regions voted overwhelmingly in referendums to join Russia. President Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow is open to negotiations with Ukraine as long as Kiev and its Western backers are serious about long-term peace with Moscow, and not just because they “have run out of ammunition.”


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Missile Milestone for US Allies, But Security Dilemma for Asia

Missile Milestone for US Allies, But Security Dilemma for Asia

adminMar 19, 20245 min read

Missile Milestone for US Allies, But Security Dilemma for Asia

Since last year, China-Philippines tensions have heightened over the South China Sea maritime disputes under the incitement of Washington.

According to a news report on Breaking Defense, the two US allies of Japan and the Philippines are nearing important milestones in their plans to invest in new missiles that will extend the reach of their militaries in the Western Pacific.

The first set of BrahMos missile systems the Philippines bought from India is expected to reach the Philippines by the end of March. Around the same time, 30 personnel from Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force are expected to receive guidance from the US Navy to operate Tomahawk missiles the Japanese government plans to purchase from the US.

Zhang Junshe, a Chinese military expert, told the Global Times that this development reveals that US allies are responding to the US’ so-called Indo-Pacific Strategy and its much hyped “China threat” theory with which the US tries to form small cliques.

Tokyo and Manila’s investment in new missiles are based on their own calculations. Since last year, China-Philippines tensions have heightened over the South China Sea maritime disputes under the incitement of Washington. BrahMos missiles have a flight range of up to 290 kilometers at supersonic speed and can be launched from land, ship or fighter aircraft. The missiles could pose a striking capability toward Nansha islands such as Ren’ai Jiao (also known as Ren’ai Reef) and Meiji Jiao (also known as Meiji Reef) and even the Huangyan Dao (also known as Huangyan Island).

As for Japan, the Tomahawk missiles Japan plans to buy from the US can hit the targets 1,600 kilometers away, which far exceeds Japan’s need for self-defense but greatly boosts Japan’s offensive capabilities. Japan is using the connivance and support of the US to break through the constraints of its pacifist Constitution and realize its dream of being a political and military major power.

Japan decided in late 2022 to develop a strike capability allowing it to launch attacks on enemy forces, which was a major shift of its postwar commitment to limit its military to self-defense capabilities. If the Tomahawk missiles are deployed in Japan’s offshore islands, it could have the capability of striking the Chinese mainland.
Wang Yunfei, a naval expert, told the Global Times that BrahMos are mainly used against weaker targets. If a real conflict occurs, China has various kinds of weapons such as air-to-surface missiles, anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles that can overwhelm BrahMos. Although BrahMos missiles can boost the ability of the Coastal Defense Regiment of the Philippine Marine Corps, they have limited deterrence against China.

As for Tomahawk missiles, which is subsonic but not supersonic, China has many counterstrike abilities as it has more kinds of missiles such as DF and other types of cruise missiles.

Wang said that the analysis of the use of a weapon does not depend on its performance, but the underlying intention and motivation. Under the encouragement of the US, Japan and the Philippines are investing in these two missiles to undermine China’s efforts to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits. China has no motives to attack the territory of the two countries, but if they harm China’s interests, they will inevitably face counterstrikes from China and become cannon fodder for the US’ aggressive Asia policy.

Japan and the Philippines are not alone in missile investments. Australia is enhancing its long-range strike capabilities through similarly purchasing Tomahawk missiles. 
Sun Xihui, an associate research fellow with the National Institute of International Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that the US’ Asian allies always use the “China threat” rhetoric as an excuse to develop offensive military forces. In fact, their actions are a trigger for regional arms race, which will poison the atmosphere of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region and lead to a security dilemma in Asia. This is what the US likes to see.

The US has used the Russia-Ukraine conflict to create fear and firmly controlled its European allies, forcing them to increase their defense budgets. Now it wants to replicate this approach in Asia. Sun noted that the US does not want to have a direct confrontation with China; instead, it relies on its allies and partners in Asia to contain China and turns its sense of strategic crisis into mutual confrontation among Asian countries to achieve the dual goals of mastering the minds of its Asian allies and maintaining regional hegemony.

In the face of the disruption by the US, China must maintain strategic steadiness, strengthen self-defense, and enhance its long-range defense capabilities to ensure its national security and legitimate rights and interests.


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‘Kate Middleton’ Spotted During Farm Shop Visit With ‘Prince William’

‘Kate Middleton’ Spotted During Farm Shop Visit With ‘Prince William’

adminMar 19, 20241 min read

‘Kate Middleton’ Spotted During Farm Shop Visit With ‘Prince William’

The Princess of Wales was reportedly spotted smiling and looking relaxed, happy and healthy during a shopping trip with her husband William over the weekend. It might be more accurate to say that a couple […]

The post ‘Kate Middleton’ Spotted During Farm Shop Visit With ‘Prince William’ appeared first on The People’s Voice.

Taliban Accuses Pakistan Of Bombing Civilians

Taliban Accuses Pakistan Of Bombing Civilians

adminMar 19, 20243 min read

Taliban Accuses Pakistan Of Bombing Civilians

At least eight people were reportedly killed as the Afghan militants traded cross-border fire with the Pakistani military.

Afghanistan’s Taliban government accused Pakistan of killing eight civilians in an air raid on Monday. The Islamist group responded by opening fire on Pakistani targets, allegedly wounding seven people.

Pakistani jets “bombarded the homes of civilians” in the early hours of Monday morning, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in a statement. Mujahid said that the bombing killed eight people in the provinces of Paktika and Khost, both of which border Pakistan.

The Pakistani Foreign Ministry did not comment on the alleged civilian casualties but said that the Pakistan Air Force had launched “intelligence-based anti-terrorist operations” against Taliban-sponsored terrorist groups operating in the two provinces. These groups include the Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Islamabad says have used Afghanistan as a staging ground for attacks on Pakistani soil.

The Taliban denies sheltering the TTP. While Hafiz Gul Bahadur once led a Taliban faction in Pakistan, his current relationship with Kabul is unclear.

Read more Taliban boycotts UN-sponsored meeting

The most recent of these attacks was on Saturday, when a suicide bomber drove an explosives-laden truck into a military checkpoint in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. A splinter group of the TTP claimed responsibility for the attack, which killed seven Pakistani soldiers.

Mujahid said that Taliban fighters responded to Monday’s airstrikes by targeting Pakistani military outposts with heavy weapons. Pakistani officials told Al Jazeera that three soldiers and four civilians were wounded by mortar fire.

“The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which has a long experience of freedom struggle against the superpowers of the world, does not allow anyone to invade its territory,” the Taliban spokesman stated.

Although an American ally, Pakistan provided military and financial aid to the Taliban before and during the US invasion of Afghanistan. That relationship has since soured, with Pakistan fencing up its side of the Afghan border and deporting hundreds of thousands of Afghans late last year. Tit-for-tat killings have become commonplace along the frontier since 2022, with the Pakistani government accusing the Taliban of sheltering terrorists and Kabul accusing Islamabad of violating Afghan sovereignty.

READ MORE: Taliban winning war against opium trade – UN

Not a single country officially recognizes the Taliban government, which took power in Kabul in 2021 during the final stage of the withdrawal of US troops. The UN does not recognize the group’s authority over Afghanistan, and the Taliban has boycotted power-sharing talks in Qatar.


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One Bank Sees Bitcoin at 0,000, While Ether Hits ,000 as it Becomes JPMorgan’s Favorite Crypto

One Bank Sees Bitcoin at $200,000, While Ether Hits $14,000 as it Becomes JPMorgan’s Favorite Crypto

adminMar 19, 202412 min read

One Bank Sees Bitcoin at 0,000, While Ether Hits ,000 as it Becomes JPMorgan’s Favorite Crypto

Already the nine new ETFs have accumulated a whopping 458,000 bitcoin, after net buying virtually every single day since the SEC authorized bitcoin ETFs.

Many crypto skeptics laughed over a month ago when, back on February 5, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicted that Ether (which was then trading in the low $2000s) would hit $4,000 by May, around the time the Ethereum ETF was to be approved.

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They weren’t laughing when we got there just one month later, and more than two months ahead of schedule.

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They also laughed when back in January, Kendrick laid out his “high” case for bitcoin ETF accumulation – one which would justify a 2024 year-end price of $100,000 – as hitting 400,000 in early April, on their way to 1.32 million “coins” at year-end (or just 437,000 in the low case).

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Fast forward to today – it’s not even April yet – and already the nine new ETFs have accumulated a whopping 458,000 bitcoin, after net buying virtually every single day since the SEC authorized bitcoin ETFs.

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Bottom line: of all sellside analysts, Kendrick has proven time and again to be one of the most accurate, which is why latest research notes – one on bitcoin, and on ether – published earlier today, should be required reading for anyone following the crypto sector.

In his first note, available to pro subs in the usual place, the Standard Chartered analyst writes that his latest forecast is for the price of bitcoin – now beyond the upcoming halving – to end 2024 around USD150k (up from a long held USD100k view). Then, “in 2025 bitcoin will overshoot to a cycle high of $250k before ultimately settling around $200k which will then be the new midpoint of a higher trading range. At that time vol will fall, and so will the rate of ascent of bitcoin.”

How/why will we get there?

Taking a deserved victory lap, Kendrick writes that “ETF inflows have been almost exactly as I had predicted, huge, but much greater than others had expected.” Indeed, the ytd inflows are bang in the middle of his previous high/low forecast range discussed here, and so suggest we end up somewhere around $75BN of inflows. At that point, the gold ETF story suggests we will be around $200k and that we then trade sideways in a higher trading rage (ie. The ETF inflows are a one-off re-rating higher).

Kendrick also notes that “a gold v BTC portfolio optimization suggests we should be around 80%/20% rather than the current 91%/9% spilt. Again that points to the USD200k level as being ‘correct’.”  He explains why below:

The total market cap of all above-ground gold is currently around USD 14.8tn (212,582 tonnes based on World Gold Council data, at the 15 March price of USD 2,160 per ounce). For BTC, the current price gives a market cap of USD 1.4tn – a split of 91% for gold to 9% for BTC. Assuming the gold price stays unchanged, the BTC price would need to increase to USD 190,000 in order for BTC’s share to rise to the 20% indicated by our portfolio optimisation. Again, this is close to our estimated BTC price level of USD 200,000 based on ETF inflows. 

The analysis focuses some more on comps to the gold market, before turning to another potential source of bitcoin price upside: FX reserves, i.e., “another large sticky (potential) cash pool, which could follow in the footsteps of new US pension money.” Specifically, Kendrick says that US and EU sanctions on Russia’s reserves “have structurally increased the appeal of non-standard reserve assets for FX reserve managers. The most obvious beneficiaries of this are gold and the CNY, but digital assets could also benefit” (as they already have in El Salvador where Nayib Bukele has previously purchased over 5,600 bitcoin). If they do, expect the largest and most liquid assets – such as Bitcoin – to receive most of the inflows. Which is why, the Standard Chartered analysts sees “a rising likelihood that large reserve managers (Figure 7) may announce BTC buying in 2024.”

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That pretty much covers the bullish bitcoin case; now what about Ethereum?

Well, a couple points here. First of all, recall that in recent years, Wall Street has traditionally held ethereum, due to its smart contract nature and flexible architecture in much higher regard than bitcoin. None other than Goldman Sachs said, three years ago when it initiated coverage on the crypto sector, that bitcoin is a good asset, and “ironically” will be used as the “scarce resource” to make PoS systems work “instead of natural resources”, but while bitcoin may end up being a one-trick pony (if quite valuable) it is the new blockchain platforms – like Ethereum – that will serve as the basis for a “large market of trusted information“, as Goldman puts it “like Amazon is for consumer goods today

But it’s not just Goldman: none other than the most important man in the world of finance (sorry Jamie Dimon), the head of Blackrock – which buys and sells ETFs, bonds, and any other asset class at the Fed’s bidding – Larry Fink, said he is backing an ether ETF just after the SEC gave approval to Bitcoin. Specifically, the king of Wall Street, said “I see value in having an Ethereum ETF. These are just stepping stones towards tokenization and I really do believe this is where we’re going to be going.”  And whatever Larry sees, and wants, Larry gets.

Part 2: ETH ETF pic.twitter.com/qnmB7azyQN

— Cryptik1.eth |? (@Cryptik1E) January 12, 2024

That said, with just 2 months left until the SEC is expected to greenlight Ethereum ETFs, some are skeptical that the regulator will be as “forthcoming” this time as back in January with bitcoin, most notably Bloomberg’s ETF guru Eric Balchunas who gives just 35% odds of an Ethereum ETF being approved in May, as “we’re 73 days from the final deadline, and there’s been no contact or comments from the SEC to the issuers. That’s not a good sign… The SEC has to give comments and the issuers have to work on correcting them. They may have to refile and they might even want to have a couple of meetings — it’s kind of a long process.”

Needless to say, Standard Chartered’s analyst Geoffrey Kendrick does not agree, and just as he sees much more upside to bitcoin, he sees even more potential gains for ether, which last week quietly and successfully implemented its long-awaited Dencun upgrade, thanks to which ETH is now as competitive as Solana in terms of transaction costs, via layer 2s.

But that is hardly a value proposition (just don’t tell it to all those who are currently blowing Solana NFT memecoin bubbles which will burst spectacularly in a few days, assuming the centralized database that is Solana doesn’t collapse – as it tends to do every other month – first). What is of potential value, is that ether ETF approval is coming one way or another, and according to Kendrick, the SEC will do so on May 23, the final deadline for the first batch under consideration, and consistent with the timeline for the SEC’s January 2024 approval of Bitcoin ETFs: “Albeit I note this is now a non-consensus view. I think the process should be the same as it was for the BTC ETFs and I don’t see why the SEC would not approve” especially since in the UK, the LSE announced on 11 March that it would accept applications for ETH and BTC ETFs, which Kendrick’s think increases the chances of US approval.

What happens then? Well, if the ETH ETFs are approved, Doug estimates $15-45BN – or 2.39-9.15 million ETH – in the first 12 months after approval, using the same logic as he applied to the BTC ETF inflows; importantly, he now sees more price upside than he previously did, and believes that ETH would keep pace with BTC, with the current 5.4% price ratio holding for the rest of 2024: “Given that we now see BTC reaching the USD 150,000 level by end-2024, this would imply a level of USD 8,000 for ETH” or just more than double from here.

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But the real value of ETH will shine in 2025 when Kendrick expects the ETH-BTC cross to track higher, back to 7%, as real world use cases on ETH – the same ones laid out by Goldman – start to take shape. This, he believes, “will see ETH to USD14k by year-end 2025.” There could be more gains: the report goes on to note borrow heavily from the Goldman ETH initiation report above, and states that…

“If real-world use cases start to take practical shape before the end of 2025 (we see gaming as the most likely), then we think markets will start to see ETH as the digital assets version of a big tech stock. Indeed, we see several crossovers between tech and ETH, but because tech (most recently via AI) is already visible to end-users, it has taken most of the limelight so far. We expect that to change over time in favour of ETH, which is effectively a behind-the-scenes technology solution. This is because ETH’s smart contract platform enables future applications in much the same that Apple’s iOS system enables the building of apps.

In that scenario, we see the ETH-BTC price ratio rising back to the 7% level that was in place for 18 months from mid-2021 to end-2022. This would present further upside to our estimated USD 14,000 price level by end-2025.”

Impossible, you say, no way ETH rises 4x from its current price of $3,500. Perhaps, but consider the potential rise in use cases in the aftermath of the Dencun upgrade which has sent the cost of layer 2 transactions as cheap as Solanas. As a result, Kendrick believes that ETH’s use cases will “evolve towards gaming and tokenization, adding significant demand via the existing NFT and DeFi channels, respectively. Importantly, this should provide ‘proof of concept’ examples in which real-world industries come on-chain to exploit the benefits of Ethereum over their existing setups. We expect significant developments on these fronts by 2025-26.”

Tokenization of real-world assets has begun, but it is small so far. The largest is stUSDT (staked USDT, Figure 4) on the Tron network. Returns for stUSDT are driven by US Treasury yields. The others, which are primarily built on Ethereum, are shown in Figure 5. These offer investors a mix of exposure ranging from front-end Treasuries (Ondo) to real estate (RealT);

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Note, the Standard Chartered analyst is not the first to say the true value of ETH is in tokenization: initially it was Goldman, and most recently it was the king of Wall Street, Blackrock’s Larry Fink, who as we noted above, said “I see value in having an Ethereum ETF. These are just stepping stones towards tokenization and I really do believe this is where we’re going to be going.”

But while Goldman and Blackrock betting on ETH would be effectively a home run, what would guarantee a trifecta would be the last major holdout joining the bandwagon, and that’s precisely what happened last week when the bank – whose boss has been the most vocally skeptical of bitcoin in recent years – put its chips on ETH.

In a March 14 note on Coinbase (which hiked the price target from $95 to $150; full note available to pro subs in the usual place) from JPM’s Ken Worthington, the crypto analyst echoed Goldman, Standard Chartered and Blackrock, and said that while “the focus of the cryptocurrency marketplace has been the net new money going into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and the positive impact on Bitcoin token prices” it is “ethereum and its native token Ether as a substantial contributor to the cryptocurrency ecosystem, and developer of blockchain technology.”

Specifically, JPM writes that “it sees see the progression along the Ethereum roadmap, including the Dancun upgrade, which occurred this week on March 13, as driving crypto development, which is a longer-term positive and discuss this further in this research.” 

Compare and contrast that with, well, anything that Jamie Dimon has said about Bitcoin.

There is much more in the full report, including a full fawning section on ETH (that appears to have been taken almost verbatim from the Goldman initiating coverage report)…

Article

… but the bottom line is that while Bitcoin was the pioneer in Wall Street’s institutionalization race, having seen the startling success of bitcoin ETF adoption, the financial titans including Goldman, Blackrock – and now – JPM, have set their sights on what comes next, which is something near and dear to the people who manage trillions: the fastest, cheapest and most effective way to tokenize everything, from information, to data, to money itself. And they have picked the token to do it with.

So keep a close eye on what happens on May 23 when the SEC is reportedly pushing hard against ETF approval for the second biggest digital asset: with all three of the largest US financial institutions pushing hard, any resistance will die a quick and painless death.

More in the full notes from JPMStd Chartered and Goldman


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