Is France the Next Greece?
French markets have found some relief after the first round of its latest election, with stocks recovering somewhat and bond yields falling after reaching a 12-year high. But no matter which side wins in France, the market is afraid that an increase in unsustainable spending could be the common denominator.
Greece’s sovereign debt crisis after the global 2008 implosion was characterized by an excessively high debt-to-GDP ratio, budget deficits, low growth, and an over-reliance on revenues from the tourism industry. Now, whispers abound in the Eurozone that in France, a similar crisis could be on the horizon.
With its entry into the Eurozone, Greece’s central bank lost much of its ability to kick the can down the road by printing money. Long and short-term bond yields skyrocketed as the value of Greek debt plunged and bond investors fled to greener pastures. Greece’s 2015 default to the IMF totaled €1.6 billion.
France’s debt-to-GDP skyrocketed during COVID-19, and after etching downwards, it’s now trending back up and is expected to exceed COVID levels within a few years. The French economy is unsure of how to react to the policy promises of the left or the right, so whispers of a potential debt crisis have far from stopped just because volatile French markets are experiencing a momentary breath of relief.
Eyes are on the yield spread between France and Germany. Yields for “safe haven” German bonds have become the Eurozone benchmark, so the difference between German yields and those of other countries has become an indicator of the relative risk tolerance for investors in European government debt. Both France and Belgium were once considered low-risk “core” nations among European economies, but that narrative is now changing as the problem of overspending is recognized across what were once regarded as economically stable countries.
Meanwhile, the US has many of the same problems — raging deficits, low growth, rising debt-to-GDP ratio, and high inflation. The US also has more tricks to kick the can down the road, but few options for truly fixing the problem.
HOW BAD THE US DEBT CRISIS HAS BECOME?
US federal debt hit $34.8 trillion for the 1st time in history
In last 4 years, it has skyrocketed by $11 trillion, an equivalent of 40% US GDP.
By comparison, reaching the first $11 trillion it took 220 years.
How does it matter??1/11. pic.twitter.com/TnSUYPvCpd— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 26, 2024
In 2010, the IMF defined an “unsustainable” debt-to-GDP ratio of an advanced economy to be around 180%. Officially, the current US debt-to-GDP ratio is “only” about 125%. But along with the Fed itself, Global lenders like the IMF are beginning to express concern about out-of-control budget deficits in major economies.
GDP alone doesn’t tell the story. A large part of the US GDP total is based on housing and the over-leveraged real estate market, an economic paper tiger that’s utterly dependent on low interest rates and central bank money printing. With real estate taking a range of 12 to 18% or more of the GDP pie depending on who you ask, the picture isn’t so reassuring. In Greece, the tourism industry was too dominant to handle an economic shock. In the US, it’s real estate.
There’s also the inconvenient truth that high inflation can make nominal GDP appear higher since the “market value” of the economy’s goods is higher on paper. When things cost more it can pump the GDP numbers, even though market value alone has nothing to do with whether an economy is healthy or unhealthy. Of course, Keynesians insist that this can equate to “real” growth, and economists continue debating if high GDP fuels high inflation, or the other way around.
Politicians love spending other people’s money because it makes them look good in the short term — and all that matters is winning that next election. But whether it’s Greece, France, Japan, or the US, there’s only so much debt a country can take on before entering a black hole. And there’s only so long that central banks can postpone the inevitable.
MUST WATCH: Dr. David Martin Interview — U.S. Gov. Is Coordinating A Depopulation Program Against The World
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The US government want the vaccine manufacturer Moderna to develop a new mRNA vaccine that could treat bird flu, or H5N1, in people. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services will pay Moderna $176 […]
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Neurosurgeon: Biden ‘Undoubtedly Has Parkinson’s Disease Dementia’
President Joe Biden, 81, exhibits obvious signs of mild Parkinson’s disease dementia, a neurosurgeon claims.
The medical expert, who preferred to remain anonymous, gave confirmation of the neurological disease in an email to journalist Alex Berenson, saying Biden shows classic signs such as the absence of facial expressions and “gait instability.”
Responding to a previous article, where Berenson declared he’d vote Trump because “It’s obvious Joe Biden has some kind of age-related neurological illness, probably either Parkinson’s or Alzheimer’s,” the neurosurgeon wrote:
He undoubtedly has Parkinson’s disease, and is increasingly suffering from Parkinson’s dementia. The signs are unmistakable:
-his shuffling gait
-the absence of associated movements (facial expression, arm swinging). When he does swing his arms, it appears stilted – probably because his handlers have told him to swing his arms when he walks. It’s something we all do naturally, but it goes away in Parkinson’s disease
-gait instability
-soft voice
-ON and OFF periods – times when the medication seems to be working well, and when it isn’t (also explains how a good dose of Sinemet times right could get him more animated
-resting tremor is not prominent in Biden’s case, but this is true of many cases of Parkinsonism
The brain surgeon went on to assert Biden’s doctors “UNDOUBTEDLY know this,” adding, “this is worse than the Roosevelt secret.”
Judging by his current condition, the doctor assessed Biden over the next six months could begin having increased trouble walking, “eventually needing some sort of assistive device.”
“His gait and his expressionless face (called a ‘poker face’ in the Parkinson’s literature) are quite classic,” the neurosurgeon added.
Unfortunately for Democrats, the doctor’s diagnosis confirms their worst fears: they have a senile nursing home resident running as their party’s presidential candidate who will most assuredly lose to Donald Trump in November.
Pelosi Distances From Biden, Now Says ‘Legitimate’ to Question If He Has Dementia
After initially coming to his defense on Sunday, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) appeared to throw Joe Biden under the bus during an interview Tuesday, acknowledging that concerns over his cognitive function are “legitimate.”
“Again, I think it’s a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition?” Pelosi told MSNBC host Andrea Mitchell.
Whoa! Did Nancy Pelosi just signal a pivot away from her stalwart defense of Joe Biden?
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) July 2, 2024
“I think it’s a legitimate question to say, ‘Is this an episode or is this a condition?'” pic.twitter.com/K1Zc48pI48
In the same interview, Pelosi also argued that both former President Donald Trump and Biden should take cognitive tests to the American people’s satisfaction.
“Both candidates owe whatever test you want to put them to in terms of their mental acuity and their health,” she insisted.
Later in the same interview, Nancy says this:
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) July 2, 2024
“Both candidates owe whatever test you want to put them to in terms of their mental acuity and health.”
Pivot in motion. pic.twitter.com/Nw8BC5doLg
This comes just days after Pelosi claimed Biden has “stamina”, but that Trump has dementia in response to Biden’s disastrous debate performance that exposed his own obvious cognitive decline and signs of dementia.
NEW: Nancy Pelosi claims ‘healthcare professionals’ say Trump is actually the candidate with dementia before having a senior moment of her own.
This gaslighting is crazy.
During an interview with CNN, Pelosi gaslit the American people before she was seen seizing up, appearing… pic.twitter.com/qm92OY1fL8— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) June 30, 2024
Biden’s debate failure was so total and complete due to his diminished cognitive function that top Democrats and establishment media outlets like the New York Times promptly called for Biden to step aside for a younger, more spry candidate to face off against Trump.
Watch Pelosi’s full interview:
Supreme Court Rules Trump Has Presidential Immunity
The US Supreme Court issued its ruling on Donald Trump’s immunity case on Monday, stating that he has some immunity from criminal charges in his election interference case. While addressing a series of charges against […]
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Recent Key Decisions of Supreme Court
In Trump v. United States, the Supreme Court ruled that the president and former presidents “may not be prosecuted for exercising core constitutional powers,” and are entitled, “to a presumptive immunity from prosecution for all official acts.”
The justices ordered the lower courts to apply this decision to the Donald Trump case being led by Jack Smith.
In City of Grants Pass v. Johnson, the enforcement of generally applicable laws regulating camping on public property does not constitute “cruel and unusual punishment” prohibited by the Eighth Amendment. The Supreme Court has ruled that the law which disallows people from sleeping on public streets can be enforced against the homeless population.
In Fischer v. United States, the Supreme Court has ruled that the key charge used to prosecute and sentence hundreds of Americans for walking through the US Capitol building on January 6th, obstruction of an official proceeding, does not apply. Which likely means freedom for many American political prisoners.
In Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, the Supreme Court overturned a 40-year-old case called Chevron that granted radical levels of power to federal agencies.
Spike Cohen @RealSpikeCohen explains this case and its importance:
For those who don’t understand what Chevron Deference is, and why SCOTUS ended it, here’s the long and short of it:
— Spike Cohen (@RealSpikeCohen) June 30, 2024
A family fishing company, Loper Bright Enterprises, was being driven out of business, because they couldn’t afford the $700 per day they were being charged by the… pic.twitter.com/Xg3Zp8rchD
“A family fishing company, Loper Bright Enterprises, was being driven out of business, because they couldn’t afford the seven hundred dollars per day they were being charged by the NMFS, the National Marine Fisheries Service, to monitor their company. The thing is, federal law doesn’t authorize the NMFS to charge businesses for this. They just decided to start doing it in 2013. Why did they think they could get away with just charging people without any legal authorization? Because in 1984, in the Chevron decision, the Supreme Court decided that regulatory agencies were the “experts” in their field, and the courts should just defer to their “interpretation” of the law. So for the past 40 years, federal agencies have been able to “interpret” laws to mean whatever they want, and the courts had to just go with it.
It was called Chevron Deference, and it put bureaucrats in charge of the country.
It’s how OSHA, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, was able to decide that everyone who worked for a large company had to get the jab, or be fired. No law gave them that authority, they just made it up. It’s how the ATF, the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco Firearms and Explosives, was able to decide a piece of plastic was a “machine gun”. It’s how the USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service, the NRCS, is able to decide that a small puddle is a “protected wetland”. It’s how out-of-control agencies have been able to create rules out of thin air, and force you to comply, and the courts had to simply defer to them, because they were the “experts”. Imagine if your local police could just arrest you, for any reason, and no judge or jury was allowed to determine if you’d actually committed a crime or not. Just off to jail you go. That’s what Chevron Deference was. It was not only blatantly unconstitutional, it caused immeasurable harm to everyone. Thankfully, it’s now gone. We haven’t even begun to feel the effects of this decision in the courts. It will be used, for years to come, to roll back federal agencies, and we’ll all be better off for it. And that’s why politicians and corporate media are freaking out about it.”
In an era of bad news, the US Supreme Court has brought us some good tools that we the people can wield to work on restoring America.
Happy Independence Day.